The Challenge of Numbers

Bernard L. Madison

[Reprinted from a collection of essays published in 1991 by National Academy Press, Headline News, Science News. At the time this essay was published, Bernard Madison was dean of the Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences]

"I never could do math. It was my worst subject."

We mathematicians hear these words often. Ignorance of mathematics is considered a badge of normalcy by many Americans. People may grumble about the teenager at the local fast food restaurant who cannot add a sum without a picture-coded cash register, or shudder at having to compute a percentage, but they tend to see such flaws as unremarkable.

Americans are in for a shock. By 1995, eight of the 10 fastest-growing jobs will be based on mathematics, among them scientists, engineers and statisticians. A majority of the 21 million new jobs created by the U.S. economy overall during 1985-2000 will require mathematics skills and a post-secondary education.

As our country faces the task of educating workers for jobs that cannot even be imagined yet, mathematics is more important than ever before. The world is changing so quickly that people can no longer rely on a static set of facts they learned in school to get them through the rest of their professional careers. Instead, they must have a strong enough command of the fundamentals so they can adapt constantly. Clerks must learn to become keypunch operators and then systems analysts. Those who cannot learn new skills risk unemployment.

No competency is more fundamental in this emerging world than numerical reasoning, problem-solving and other basic mathematical skills. Informed citizens must be able to cope with economic indicators, census data, environmental risk factors and weather probabilities. College curricula require mathematics and statistics courses. High technology has invaded the workplace.

How well is the United States positioned to meet this increased need for mathematics education? Not very. An expert committee of the National Research Council that studied the situation concluded earlier this month that the nation's supply of mathematically skilled teachers, scientists, engineers and others is actuallyshrinking.

211 The number of bachelor's degrees awarded in mathematics in the United States was lower in 1986 than in 1966, which helps explain why so many school systems across the country cannot find qualified mathematics teachers. More than half of the new doctorates in mathematics are now awarded to foreign citizens, up from only about one-fifth in the early seventies. By the end of this decade, the number of new doctoral graduates taking academic positions will be insufficient to replace retirees. Even this dismal state of affairs assumes a continued heavy reliance on foreign citizens and makes no allowance for a projected increase in demand for mathematicians from private companies and others.

One reason for the shortage of mathematically trained Americans is that the college-age population as a whole is declining. However, the equation is more complicated than that. Notably, despite some encouraging trends, women, blacks and Hispanics still participate in mathematics-based classes and occupations at rates far below their numbers. Since two-thirds of new workers will come from these groups, the supply of mathematically educated workers is diminishing as the demand grows. That is, unless things change soon.

Mathematics teaching in our country has been hampered by too few resources, lack of a national imperative, a highly decentralized system, unimaginative courses and curricula, and no clear understanding of what is important. At the collegiate level, mathematical sciences have passed through three roller coaster decades since the Soviet launch of the Sputnik satellite in 1957. During the '60s, the study of mathematics and science was equated with supporting democracy, and expanded accordingly. In the '70s, in the face of increasing college enrollments and an emphasis on social problems, the job market for many science and math graduates declined. This past decade, concern about economic competitiveness spurred a partial recovery.

Various organizations are now working on better teaching methods and other promising ideas for the '90s. But the larger challenge exists outside the classroom in our country's offices, factories, shopping malls and homes, where many Americans continue to regard ignorance of mathematics as routine. Such ignorance must be recognized, instead, as a sentence of obsolescence. Everyone, regardless of race or sex, can learn mathematics. Everyone should learn mathematics. Until more Americans get the message, our national well-being is very much at risk.